Yemen Conflict 2025: What to Expect as War Enters a Critical Third Year

Yemen stands at a precipice in 2025, with the decades-long conflict entering its third year amid shifting alliances, humanitarian crises, and emerging regional dynamics. As foreign interventions moderate but violence persists, the country faces a volatile reality: no decisive end in sight, yet the landscape of power and survival continues to evolve. What can be anticipated for Yemen in the coming months?

The trajectory hinges on military stalemates, diplomatic overtures, humanitarian conditions, and the competing interests of regional and global actors shaping the war’s outcome.

Military Frontlines Stalemate Despite Escalations

The military dimension of the Yemen conflict remains entrenched, with neither the internationally recognized government nor the Houthi-ledans maintene full control over territory. In 2025, frontlines in key regions—particularly around the capital Sana’a and the southern port of Aden—show no signs of decisive breakthroughs.

The Houthis retain strong grip on northern highlands and capital, supported by advanced drone and missile capabilities crucial for sustaining pressure. Meanwhile, southern factions aligned with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) maintain control over much of Aden and strategic coastal areas, increasingly assertive in their push for autonomy. > “The war has settled into a grinding war of attrition,” notes Dr.

Leila Al-Mutairi, a conflict analyst at the Gulf Institute for Security Studies. “Neither side can claim a clear victory, but both retain the firepower and tactical flexibility to escalate quickly when opportunities arise.” Recent surveillance reports suggest a rise in drone strikes and precision attacks, with Houthi forces launching longer-range missiles into Saudi Arabia and reducing parts of the southwest, while Southern forces probe central highlands with increased coordination. Despite periodic ceasefires brokered through UN-led negotiations—most recently in June 2025—they remain fragile, often broken by breaches from both militant and state-aligned actors.

Military observers stress that the conflict’s endurance is fueled by persistent arms flows and regional enthusiasm for proxy engagement. “The conflict is less a national struggle now and more a theater where regional powers test capabilities and influence,” explains militaires journalist Ahmed Saleh.

Humanitarian Crisis Deepens Amid Stalled Aid Access

The humanitarian toll in Yemen remains catastrophic, with over 21 million people—nearly two-thirds of the population—requiring direct assistance in 2025.

The United Nations describes the situation as “the world’s worst humanitarian disaster,” driven by prolonged blockades, economic collapse, and systemic attacks on civilian infrastructure. Fuel shortages cripple water pumping stations and hospitals, while disruptions to imports—especially food and medicine—have pushed famine-like conditions into vulnerable governorates. > “Every day without safe passage to Sana’a or Hodeidah deepens suffering,” says Fatima Qaddouri, a UNICEF nutrition specialist currently working in Taiz.

“Children are disappearing—not from frontline deaths, but from malnutrition and preventable diseases.” Sources confirm that while the UN has expanded limited cross-border shipments from Djibouti and reduced reliance on overland entry through Saudi Arabia, access remains inconsistent due to bureaucratic delays and mistrust among warring parties. Mobile clinics and emergency food baskets continue to reach isolated communities, but shortages persist in conflict hotspots.

The UN’s humanitarian funding gap persists, with only partial support from international donors.

In 2025, aid organizations urge sustained global contribution not just to avoid a larger catastrophe but to stabilize the fragile social fabric that holds Yemen’s fragmented society together.

Diplomatic Shifts Signal a Possible Turning Point?

Shifts in regional diplomacy may influence Yemen’s flashpoint status well into 2025. The Abraham Accords normalization and Saudi-Iran détente mediated by China in early 2023 have subtly reshaped engagement, though Yemen remains low on the regional priority list except as a security liability. Riyadh and Tehran continue to channel influence through proxies, but neither is pushing for an immediate ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia, the leading coalition backer of the Yemen government, faces domestic political recalibrations under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, balancing regional leadership with economic reforms. On the other side, Iran’s support for the Houthis remains consistent but calculated—limited by energetic capacity and growing international isolation. “While abstention from direct war has prevailed, backchannel talks involving Omani intermediaries and Qatari facilitators show potential,” remarks diplomatic analyst Samir Ghannoush.

“Yemen may yet become a test case for broader Gulf reconciliation, albeit one unfolding quietly.” There is no clear timeline for a peace deal, but increased diplomatic rotation—such as UAE-backed southern engagement with Houthi representatives—hints at incremental de-escalation strategies beyond full normalization.

Analysts caution that proxy diplomacy alone cannot resolve Yemen’s core political fractures. Yet tighter coordination among GCC states and revised UN resolutions aim to embed incremental ceasefires into longer-term frameworks that could eventually underpin political negotiations.

Economic Collapse Exacerbates Social Unrest

Yemen’s economy remains shattered, with the central bank split between Sana’a and Aden, currency devaluation rendering basic goods unaffordable for most. Unemployment hovers above 35%, and inflation exceeds 40%, pushing informal economies and survival-based crime to epidemic levels. Private sector activity is nearly paralyzed outside limited O perspectiveness in Aden, where foreign reconstruction pledges remain symbolic without rule-of-law reforms.

> “The economy isn’t just collapsing—it’s eroding social cohesion,” explains Dr. Khaled Al-Rahman, senior economist at Mukhtar Economic Review. “When daily necessities cost twice what they did five years ago, resignation morphs into active defiance.” Local protests—small, scattered, often unarmed—have increased in southern and central governorates, reflecting desperation rather than organized rebellion.

International financial institutions call for urgent banking sector reforms and transparent revenue management to rebuild fiscal credibility, yet political fragmentation impedes progress.

Parallel financial systems controlled by Houthi authorities and local councils operate without oversight, deepening dependency and corruption. Meanwhile, remittances—once a vital lifeline from Gulf expatriates—have plummeted due to Saudi labor market tightening and Houthi taxation policies.

Future Outlook: Stalemate or Surrender?

As 2025 draws to a close, Yemen’s conflict remains entrenched in a precarious stalemate defined by military deadlock, humanitarian strain, marginal diplomacy, and economic implosion. No party holds a decisive advantage, yet shifting regional priorities could recalibrate the footprint of external involvement. The probability of full-scale war reduction dims amid entrenched interests and budgeted war economies, yet opportunities for localized ceasefires and humanitarian breakthroughs persist—dependent on sustained mediation and donor resolve.

The path to peace remains obstructed by political intransigence and regional strategic calculations but not erased. Yemen’s survival—social, humanitarian, and otherwise—hinges on a convergence of ceasefire durability, inclusive political dialogue, and credible international support. Until then, the country endures as both a tragedy and a barometer of Middle East conflict’s intractable complexity.